I used this list of US TV markets, and focused on the largest 100 (of about 200). Of those top 100 media markets, 23 are in Big Ten states, and 13 are in Big 12 states. I did not include Philadelphia or St. Louis with the Big Ten (I suppose I might have, but I was feeling conservative), and I did not include Nebraska or Colorado in with the Big 12 (for obvious reasons). According to the figures on that website, those 23 Big Ten media markets represent a little more than 17% of the TV households in the US, while the 13 Big 12 media markets represent not quite 10%. Also, the Big Ten stands to earn even more money now that they can hold a conference championship game (because they have at least 12 teams), while the Big 12 will not make as much because they will have to eliminate their championship game (due to conference membership falling short of 12). When you factor in that the Big Ten now has at least four football schools with national television appeal (i.e. schools that generate interest outside of the Big Ten states)- Ohio St., Penn St., Michigan, and Nebraska- while the Big 12 really only has two-Texas and Oklahoma- it’s easy to see why someone (me) might be skeptical about the claim that a Big 12 TV contract could be worth almost as much as the Big Ten’s current deal.

Here are the most likely BCS teams as of right now:
- Bama (#1, SEC)
- OU (#2, Big 12)
- Texas (at large)
- Florida (at large)
- Penn St (B10)
- Cincinnati (Big East)
- Somebody from the ACC (BC? VT? FSU? Who cares?)
- Oregon State (Pac 10)
- Utah (“mid-major” qualifier)
- USC (at large)

Remember, there are only two schools per conference allowed (unless, apparently, something crazy happens where Missouri wins the Big 12 but UT and OU end up 1-2, then I guess the BCS would take all three).

For Ohio State to get into the BCS, the conventional wisdom is that Oregon State needs to lose. They can win the Pac 10 by beating Oregon this weekend, but if they lose wouldn’t be good enough to be a BCS at large (and USC would win the Pac 10, assuming they get by UCLA next week). USC winning the Pac 10 would free up a spot for tOSU (especially because the Big 12 and SEC would be at the 2-team limit). As far as I can tell, if OrSU loses, the only other team that would be in the mix with tOSU for a BCS at large is Boise St. Technically, I suppose TCU and Ball St would be eligible, but I can’t imagine a BCS game choosing either of them over tOSU.

If Oregon State wins, and everything else holds form (i.e. UF beats FSU, USC wins out), I don’t think tOSU has a shot at a BCS game (because USC has the head-to-head win). I may be wrong- tOSU may be more attractive to some BCS bowl than USC- but I doubt it. I see the decision coming down to that. So the upshot of an Oregon St win for tOSU is a trip to the Capital One Bowl against Georgia (preseason #1 vs #2 matchup…). You know tOSU has been on a good run when the Capital One Bowl sounds disappointing.

Regarding UT, things are just crazy. Even if they beat TAMU on Thursday, they could end up in the Holiday or Cotton Bowl. Obviously the BCS championship game is still a possibility. Here’s the crazy scenario for the Big 12 South:

UT – OU – TTU (South champ)

W – W – W (BCS ranking tiebreaker- this is why everybody is freaking out)
W – W – L (UT, Head-to-Head over OU)
W – L – W (TTU, HtH over UT)
W – L – L (UT on record)
L – W – W (OU, HtH over TTU)
L – W – L (OU on record)
L – L – W (TTU on record)
L – L – L (not sure, would be 4-way tie with OkSt- maybe BCS ranking again?)

So, in one sense, only 1 (or maybe 2) out of 8 possible outcomes leads to some BCS ranking train wreck. However, that’s the outcome everybody is focusing on, because it seems to be the most likely of the 8 (UT plays TAMU, and TAMU sucks; TTU plays Baylor, and Baylor sucks; OU should beat OkSt because OU is the greatest team of all time, omg did you see what they did to TTU?!?).

I think it’s actually kind of interesting to think about what would happen if you allow for the possibility that one of these teams could lose. Most people seem to assume that all three will win, and that because of their loss last weekend, TTU is out of the running. But of the three games, OkSt is the toughest opponent, so OU might be at the most risk (ignore for a second the fact that UT has lost two straight to TAMU). If OU loses, it doesn’t matter what UT does, Tech is in with a win.

So for now the CF is just trying to figure out who will play in the Big 12 championship next week. Once that matchup is set after this weekend’s games, there will be a whole new set of scenarios to discuss. I think it’s best to wait and see how this weekend goes before getting into them…

Look, the Big 12 South doesn’t get solved with any sort of a playoff proposal that’s within the realm of possibility. If there was a plus-one, it would only include conference champions. No way, no how do all the BCS conferences allow any sort of a playoff, a plus-one, or any format other than what’s happening now without making sure the money train keeps rolling. You think the ACC is going to allow a plan that would potentially allow two Big 12 and two SEC teams play in a playoff? Yeah, right. You’re not going to get a 16-team playoff for the FBS, ever, so quit your “it works for the FCS” beef. Again, we have to work in the land of the real. Go to an eight-team playoff, and there still wouldn’t be any way that Oklahoma, Texas, and Texas Tech all get in. At the moment, your ire needs to be directed at the Big 12 South tie-breaker system, not the BCS or the lack of a playoff.

I feel better now having posted that. Deep breath. By the way- one of the Texas, Oklahoma, Texas Tech trio is going down this weekend. I have no idea who, but my “college football Murphy’s Law” hunch is that the BCS-ranking tiebreaker won’t even come into play.

Go Bucks!

This is the greatest baby sports Halloween costume the world has ever seen:

The whole saga of the Baby Mangino(s) (there are actually 2!) on Deadspin:

• Baby Mangino surfaces
• A second Baby Mangino emerges
• Original Baby Mangino ID’ed!

For the record, I’m down with the “original” Baby Mangino (seen above). Sunglasses Baby Mangino wins points for accessories (headset, sunglasses, play-calling card), but the “original” Baby Mangino just has that “it” factor.

At least in theory.

I just want to go on record to suggest that there’s no way it’s a 100% certainty that Muschamp is the next head coach of the ‘Horns. This move is all about keeping Muschamp in Austin, and is about the University letting him leave on their terms. AD Deloss Dodds mentioned the two reasons for making this move: (1) to keep Muschamp in Austin, and (2) for having a smooth transition when Mack does decide to retire. By making Muschamp the highest-paid assistant in the country, and by declaring him heir to one of the best jobs in college football (and, I assume, by including language in the contract to limit his ability to pursue other jobs because of his new position), UT has certainly got their man. And, for Muschamp, this seems like a pretty sweet deal: he’s got a major pay raise to keep doing the same job, and has the promise of taking over when presumably both he and Mack are ready for it to happen. The deal looks like a win-win.

But regarding the issue of the deal providing a “smooth transition” for Mack’s retirement, I’m gonna call BS. Everything’s rosy in Austin now- after winning a title in 2005, and with the possibility of winning another one this year (don’t discount the fact that if Texas is denied a title shot it will be the fault of the voters rather than Mack), coach Brown is riding high. And Muschamp (“He’s so intense! He bloodies himself on the sideline! Boom!”) is certainly an awesome DC, and has done an impressive job with the Texas defense in a single year. He’s been the defensive MVP this year for UT (with all apologies to Orakpo).

But say something happens over the coming couple of years that hints Muschamp isn’t fit for being a HC. Or maybe, that there’s a better candidate out there for the position. The point is that we don’t know, because that’s down the road. Unless Mack is ready to retire after this season (and all indications are that he is not), we don’t know what college football (or UT football) is going to look like when he is. And you better believe that UT is going to hire the best candidate for the job when it becomes available, whether that is Muschamp or not. If it turns out that hiring someone other than Muschamp provides the “smooth transition” that Dodds is talking about, then I’m sure the University will do that.

Now I’m not saying that Muschamp wouldn’t be a great HC, and I’m not saying that I don’t like the guy. I think he’s awesome, and has been great for UT. I just think this move is way more about locking him up in the short-term rather than promoting him to HC in the long-term. After losing two defensive coordinators (Greg Robinson and Gene Chizik) to head coaching positions in recent years, UT has to do what’s necessary to keep their latest defensive mastermind. If what it takes to do that is promising him the kingdom, then I guess that’s just the cost of doing business.

Date of TP’s first college class*: Sept. 24, 2008

*First day of fall quarter

Boeckman, exit stage left? You gotta feel for Todd Boeckman. Dude grows up in OSU-crazy St. Henry, Ohio (home of the Hoyings and Jim Lachey), goes on to grey-shirt a year and red-shirt a year, bides his time behind a Heisman winner in Troy Smith, then when finally given the reins merely leads his team to a conference title, a win over Michigan, and a bid in the BCS championship game (as a Junior). He didn’t have a great performance in the title game (biting my lip here), but really no Buckeyes did (except for Beanie). Then everybody decided to come back for one more year and the Bucks were labeled one of the pre-season favorites. He returns as a 24-year-old senior captain, excited knowing he’s got a Heisman favorite in the backfield with him. So yeah, OSU landed the top QB recruit in the country, but he’ll have to earn playing time, right? The job has still gotta be Todd’s to lose. Then the season starts, and Boeckman’s running mate goes down, his line throws up all over themselves on national TV, and another disastrous performance against USC causes Buckeye fans everywhere to have PTSD-style flashbacks to January in New Orleans. Meanwhile, super-frosh Pryor shows flashes of greatness mobility in his early season snaps, exciting the fans and the coaching staff. Tressel announces that the QBs will split snaps 50/50 against Troy (and has the play-calling card to prove it!), but Pryor ends up starting and taking 90+% of the snaps (unofficial estimate). Boeckman throws one pass, and it’s incomplete. Asked after the game whether Pryor is now the starter, Tress barks out something along the lines of “Were you at the game?” So here’s to you, Todd Boeckman. It would appear for now that your career as the Buckeye QB has come to a close. But here’s hoping you keep your nose in the playbook, and your head up in practice, because you’re only one Michigan-week-DUI/hundred-dollar-handshake/solicitation of an undercover cop away from getting that job right back.

Quick: who’s the #7 team in the country? If you said Texas, you can put your horns down, ‘cuz if you know that you’ve gotta be a UT fan. Talk about a top ten sleeper. They’re in the typical “call me after the OU game” position (same as every year), but considering how much hype SEC teams can get for winning a couple of non-conference games, it’s only fair to keep equally-dominating teams like UT in mind. Noteworthy from the 52-10 beatdown of Rice: On one possession, UT’s defense stopped Rice for 11 straight plays inside the UT 10 yard line, ultimately getting the ball back on downs. Colt McCoy broke Major Applewhite’s career passing TD mark (previous record was 60). And UT’s startingonly TE, Blaine Irby, was lost for the season after suffering a dislocated knee.

US Wins Ryder Cup, movie pending. If you didn’t watch the Ryder Cup this weekend, you missed out on one of the best sporting events of the year. This was a Dan Jenkins novel come to life. I mean, the stars for the US were a lovable redneck from the Florida panhandle named Boo, a Kentucky country boy who hits the ball a freaking mile named John Holmes (sorry, J.B.), a young gun from Texas (Hunter Mahan) who wasn’t even interested in being on the team earlier this summer (likening participation to slavery), an old guy (Kenny Perry) who put his entire year (and reputation) on the line for one last shot at Ryder Cup glory in his home state, and a 23-year old Asian-American (Anthony Kim) from LA with a big-ass belt buckle and the swagger to destroy the Euros’ own Ryder Cup wonder boy (Sergio Garcia). Man, that was awesome. [Semi-related note: if you're a casual sports fan who got swept up in Phelpsmania this summer but don't respect the Ryder Cup because "golf is not a sport," then I don't think we can be friends. I might even be willing to get in a drunken brawl over this. U-S-A! U-S-A!]

This week in losing (sonofa…). The Bengals almost beat the Giants. For now, my orange-clad friends, you are still relegated to Nfl.com Game Center status. If you want to achieve going-to-the-bar status with me, you’re going to have to start finishing off some of these close ones (or at least beat crappy rookie-led division opponents). You can start next week with the Browns. Or you’ll be dead to me. Viva La Revolucion!

Happy belated “Talk Like a Pirate Day!” Friday was Talk Like a Pirate Day. I could really give a rat’s ass about that, but it gives me an excuse to post a video of Mike Leach offering dating advice to Texas Tech freshmen. Ahoy matey. [via the great and powerful EDSBS]

As a redshirt freshman during the 2003 season, Young was initially 2nd on the depth chart behind Chance Mock. However, Mock was benched halfway through the season (in the game against Oklahoma) in favor of Young. After that game, Young and Mock alternated playing time, with Young’s running ability complementing Mock’s drop-back passing.

As a redshirt sophomore in the 2004 season, Young started every game and led the Longhorns to an 11-1 season record (losing only to rival Oklahoma), a top 5 final ranking, and the school’s first-ever appearance and victory in the Rose Bowl, in which they defeated the University of Michigan. He began to earn his reputation as a dual-threat quarterback by passing for 1,849 and rushing for 1,189 yards. The Texas coaches helped facilitate this performance by changing the team offensive scheme from the more traditional I-formation to a Shotgun formation with 3 wide receivers. This change gave the offense more options in terms of play selection, and consequently made it more difficult to defend against.

We all know how that story ended.

Some Buckeye fans may want to compare TP to Troy Smith, but I don’t think it makes as much sense as VY. Troy’s story is one of redemption, of overcoming all odds to rise to personal glory (winning the ultimate individual award along the way). Troy wasn’t even recruited as a QB, but rather as an “athlete” and seen as a wild card. He had to endure suspensions and allegations, and atone for his mistakes along the way. At the end of the day, Troy is a Buckeye legend, and to borrow from Ray Small, came out of college not just a good football player but a good man. But on a national scale, he’ll be remembered for coming up short against Florida. Fair or not (because it was a total team collapse), the perception of Troy was changed forever because of one game.

Vince Young, however, was the BMOC from the get-go. While he redshirted his first year, the expectation was still there that he’d be a great one someday. With VY, it was a matter of when, not if. If Troy learned how to execute the offense; VY was the offense. VY didn’t need to grow, he was already a man amongst boys. His story was all about the inevitability of domination, of seeing if anybody could take him down. As it turns out, nobody could. And like Troy, Vince will probably be best remembered for one championship game. It just so happens that his performance was one of the greatest championship/big game performances in college football history.

So now the next greatest-QB-recruit-of-all-time has arrived at Ohio State. He’s the BMOC already, the tall, smooth, run-first prodigy. Can he be the next Troy Smith? Or the next Vince Young? I guess we’ll find out soon enough. No pressure, kid.

For further reading:
Let the formal education of Terrelle Pryor begin [Dr. Saturday @ Yahoo]

The Hunted [DETAILS @ Style.com]

Really?

Take a deep breath, come down off the ledge, and read this (Part III, scroll down). Zemek makes his point much better than I could in twice as many words. Let’s just all take a time out and chill for a moment. Realize that expecting (different from hoping for) a mythical national championship every year is probably unhealthy and usually unrealistic, even for the best teams. I’m not saying you should expect mediocrity, but as Zemek points out, when your 4 non-conference losses going back to 2005 were to eventual (or potential) national champs, and your conference losses were to eventual #3 PSU and Rose Bowl participant Illinois, that’s nothing to be ashamed of. I know all it took for me to “get it” was when a Sooner fan buddy of mine gave me a simple knowing nod and a “sorry” after the Florida loss. He knew what it was all about, and he had recovered just fine. We’ll be fine, too.