Bowlin’ scenarios

Alright, so this is for a buddy who requested I post the bowl scenarios for Ohio St and Texas.

Here are the most likely BCS teams as of right now:
- Bama (#1, SEC)
- OU (#2, Big 12)
- Texas (at large)
- Florida (at large)
- Penn St (B10)
- Cincinnati (Big East)
- Somebody from the ACC (BC? VT? FSU? Who cares?)
- Oregon State (Pac 10)
- Utah (“mid-major” qualifier)
- USC (at large)

Remember, there are only two schools per conference allowed (unless, apparently, something crazy happens where Missouri wins the Big 12 but UT and OU end up 1-2, then I guess the BCS would take all three).

For Ohio State to get into the BCS, the conventional wisdom is that Oregon State needs to lose. They can win the Pac 10 by beating Oregon this weekend, but if they lose wouldn’t be good enough to be a BCS at large (and USC would win the Pac 10, assuming they get by UCLA next week). USC winning the Pac 10 would free up a spot for tOSU (especially because the Big 12 and SEC would be at the 2-team limit). As far as I can tell, if OrSU loses, the only other team that would be in the mix with tOSU for a BCS at large is Boise St. Technically, I suppose TCU and Ball St would be eligible, but I can’t imagine a BCS game choosing either of them over tOSU.

If Oregon State wins, and everything else holds form (i.e. UF beats FSU, USC wins out), I don’t think tOSU has a shot at a BCS game (because USC has the head-to-head win). I may be wrong- tOSU may be more attractive to some BCS bowl than USC- but I doubt it. I see the decision coming down to that. So the upshot of an Oregon St win for tOSU is a trip to the Capital One Bowl against Georgia (preseason #1 vs #2 matchup…). You know tOSU has been on a good run when the Capital One Bowl sounds disappointing.

Regarding UT, things are just crazy. Even if they beat TAMU on Thursday, they could end up in the Holiday or Cotton Bowl. Obviously the BCS championship game is still a possibility. Here’s the crazy scenario for the Big 12 South:

UT – OU – TTU (South champ)

W – W – W (BCS ranking tiebreaker- this is why everybody is freaking out)
W – W – L (UT, Head-to-Head over OU)
W – L – W (TTU, HtH over UT)
W – L – L (UT on record)
L – W – W (OU, HtH over TTU)
L – W – L (OU on record)
L – L – W (TTU on record)
L – L – L (not sure, would be 4-way tie with OkSt- maybe BCS ranking again?)

So, in one sense, only 1 (or maybe 2) out of 8 possible outcomes leads to some BCS ranking train wreck. However, that’s the outcome everybody is focusing on, because it seems to be the most likely of the 8 (UT plays TAMU, and TAMU sucks; TTU plays Baylor, and Baylor sucks; OU should beat OkSt because OU is the greatest team of all time, omg did you see what they did to TTU?!?).

I think it’s actually kind of interesting to think about what would happen if you allow for the possibility that one of these teams could lose. Most people seem to assume that all three will win, and that because of their loss last weekend, TTU is out of the running. But of the three games, OkSt is the toughest opponent, so OU might be at the most risk (ignore for a second the fact that UT has lost two straight to TAMU). If OU loses, it doesn’t matter what UT does, Tech is in with a win.

So for now the CF is just trying to figure out who will play in the Big 12 championship next week. Once that matchup is set after this weekend’s games, there will be a whole new set of scenarios to discuss. I think it’s best to wait and see how this weekend goes before getting into them…

Stop the insanity

So I’d been thinking of writing a post on how the Big 12 South mess would relate to different playoff proposals, and then Pete Fiutak went out and said it better (and way more succinctly) than I could:

Look, the Big 12 South doesn’t get solved with any sort of a playoff proposal that’s within the realm of possibility. If there was a plus-one, it would only include conference champions. No way, no how do all the BCS conferences allow any sort of a playoff, a plus-one, or any format other than what’s happening now without making sure the money train keeps rolling. You think the ACC is going to allow a plan that would potentially allow two Big 12 and two SEC teams play in a playoff? Yeah, right. You’re not going to get a 16-team playoff for the FBS, ever, so quit your “it works for the FCS” beef. Again, we have to work in the land of the real. Go to an eight-team playoff, and there still wouldn’t be any way that Oklahoma, Texas, and Texas Tech all get in. At the moment, your ire needs to be directed at the Big 12 South tie-breaker system, not the BCS or the lack of a playoff.

I feel better now having posted that. Deep breath. By the way- one of the Texas, Oklahoma, Texas Tech trio is going down this weekend. I have no idea who, but my “college football Murphy’s Law” hunch is that the BCS-ranking tiebreaker won’t even come into play.

And now we join the season, already in progress…

[First, a quick administrative note. Yes, it's been too long since I've posted anything (Vujacic? Really?). To the two one of you who actually attempted to read this on a semi-regular basis, I'm sorry. But it's football season now, so let's get on with it.]

• The season begins NOW in Buckeyeland. Yes, there have been two games already, but everybody knows the ’08 season begins and ends with the USC game. Any real concern about the result is misplaced anxiety- nobody’s really freaked out because it was OU, they’re freaked out because SC is next. I’m here to assuage all fears (wait, a 10.5-pt dog you say? Largest ever in the Tressel era? Oh God.) with the two-pronged theory of the Master Plan:
  1. The last two years featured great amounts of regular season domination, but things didn’t work out too well in the end. So this year, they’re reintroducing some drama into the season. It might give fans a few scares (each and every damn week), but by the end of the season, the team will be ready for anything (see 2002).
  2. How do you demonstrate Beanie’s worth? By running a little classroom demonstration. Ok class, if Buckeyes without Beanie = Terrifyingly Bad, and Buckeyes with Beanie = Good (enough to beat USC), then what is the value of Beanie? That’s right, Heisman! QED, bitches.

  

• Adding to the hype: Ray Small. You, my friend, make up for your lack of quoterific timing with brass. And perhaps more conveniently, a great defense mechanism. We may lose by 40 on Saturday, but we’ll have the better men. Left out of the quote: “You’ll all work for us someday.”
• The LA Times says there’s nothing to worry about, either. Too bad I could hear the snickering through my monitor. Ass.
• In Bevo country, however, things are smooth sailing after the 42-13 win in El Paso this weekend. Late last week the following email was sent to the student body at UT:
  

  For those of you travelling to El Paso this weekend, we hope you have a great time watching the Longhorns take on the Miners of UTEP and enjoy your visit to the “Sun City Capital of Texas.”

  The State Department has recently urged American citizens to be especially alert to safety and security concerns when visiting the border region. There have been a few incidents in years past when fans attending athletic events in El Paso have crossed the border into Mexico and experienced unsafe situations. If you are planning to visit Mexico please remember to exercise common sense precautions. Please remember that you are no longer under the same laws, customs and protections that you are accustomed to in the United States.

  We want you to have the very best experience as you travel as a representative of your school, community, and country.

  Enjoy the wide-open vistas in the Sun City and have a great time at the game!

  It’s certainly nice to get the warning, but I thought it was a little lazy that they used the exact same email they sent for the OSU game in C-bus.

• This is why college football is so great. You can wash down a super serious mid-day mid-western ulcer inducer with a good ol’ late night dick joke party.